K-Praxis - Topic: Unstructured Information Management - Political Risk Analysis and Unstructured Information Management-Print

Political Risk Analysis and Unstructured Information Management
August 1, 2003

Idea of an exchange for trading the futures in "entities" so intangible as a terrorist event is an interesting idea and could be interpreted from a more "benevolent" unstructured text information management technological perspective. It also gives us an opportunity to understand how technology can help de-politicize some of the very sensitive subjects like predicting the future of a leader or predicting the future of a country in crisis.

Anybody who is interested in a rudimentary politics would have seen, read or heard about Policy Analysis Market or PAM - the much talked about Middle East Futures market, trading in pseudo securities based on data indices that track regional events, politics and conditions including economic, civil, and military conditions in eight countries of the Middle East and the involvement of the United States. This project - created by DARPA with the help of The Economist Magazine's "Business Intelligence Unit" and powered by a software company Net Exchange which provides electronic trading solutions - has now been scrapped for good.

Financial Trading Markets as Indicators of Geopolitical Zeitgeist

Analysts across the spectrum have agreed that financial trading markets can and do provide much needed intelligence and insights into the real world. Despite the speculatory nature of most of the trading markets there are glimpses of analytical nuggets that can be derived from these trading transactions, the idea is that strong statistical base of these markets balances out any speculatory trading in short term futures over a period of time. Therefore, traditionally the intelligent communities have turned towards the financial trading markets to analyze the future of geopolitical conditions at any given time. Commentators agree that the idea itself is not a bad one.

Political Risk Analysis from Unstructured Data Management Software Perspective

Against this background, an intelligent reading of the story form technology stand point (especially unstructured and intelligent language based technology standpoint) reveals a few interesting patterns : Opinion Monitoring, Buzz Tracking, Political Risk Analysis, Business Intelligence and Decision Support Software, Intelligent Trading Software, "Understanding" and Intelligent Interpretation of Information and Data.

This story could well have been "written" in a completely different way from an unstructured information management point of view, where an online and off-line media house like The Economist uses its information corpus and the power of its politico-economic analysis to ally with a government agency like DARPA and text and statistics based software capabilities of a Business Intelligence or Decision Support solutions vendor to create a simulated exchange to predict the future of political risks. Of course, this simulation will lack the online, live feel of "public" involvement but still an equally complex simulation models such as Manto Carlo Simulation and Decision Tree Analysis could be used to obtain useful insights - that too, in much more de-polarized manner than the controversy created in the wake of PAM.

Other Examples of Technology to Analyze Complex Futures

We recently spotted a very interesting example of using machine learning and statistical simulation in the form of a technology called Hit Song Science from Polyphonic HMI. This company analyzes patterns in a new song based on learning's from its database of 3.5 million songs and predict whether that song will be hit or not.

It is important to note that the techniques used here do not take into account textual information but one could well imagine a system of automatic "hit" buzz tracking based on similar principles as those applied by pop charts - airplay monitoring, listener surveys, reviews and record sells stats.

Another equally interesting example - Internet-User-Analytics, vendors have tried to devise technologies which not only track visitors but mouse-movements on the screen to magnetize online visitors.

Some examples of bizarre yet interesting "exchanges

- Hollywood Stock Exchange

- Celebrity Stock Exchange- CelebDaq

- TradeSports Ironically Tradesports has opened a new 0-100 proposition contract on Admiral Poindexter remaining on the Defense Advance Research Projects Agency(DARPA) payroll by August 31st 2003. Note that Admiral Poindexter is alleged to have been involved in PAM!

- The Iowa Electronic Market . IEM operated by faculty at the University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of Business as part a research and teaching mission, offers small-scale, real-money futures markets where contract payoffs depend on economic and political events such as elections.

	Making sense of online textual information and information management technologies

	Political Risk Analysis and Unstructured Information Management August 1, 2003 Idea of an exchange for trading the futures in "entities" so intangible as a terrorist event is an interesting idea and could be interpreted from a more "benevolent" unstructured text information management technological perspective. It also gives us an opportunity to understand how technology can help de-politicize some of the very sensitive subjects like predicting the future of a leader or predicting the future of a country in crisis. Anybody who is interested in a rudimentary politics would have seen, read or heard about Policy Analysis Market or PAM - the much talked about Middle East Futures market, trading in pseudo securities based on data indices that track regional events, politics and conditions including economic, civil, and military conditions in eight countries of the Middle East and the involvement of the United States. This project - created by DARPA with the help of The Economist Magazine's "Business Intelligence Unit" and powered by a software company Net Exchange which provides electronic trading solutions - has now been scrapped for good. Financial Trading Markets as Indicators of Geopolitical Zeitgeist Analysts across the spectrum have agreed that financial trading markets can and do provide much needed intelligence and insights into the real world. Despite the speculatory nature of most of the trading markets there are glimpses of analytical nuggets that can be derived from these trading transactions, the idea is that strong statistical base of these markets balances out any speculatory trading in short term futures over a period of time. Therefore, traditionally the intelligent communities have turned towards the financial trading markets to analyze the future of geopolitical conditions at any given time. Commentators agree that the idea itself is not a bad one. Political Risk Analysis from Unstructured Data Management Software Perspective Against this background, an intelligent reading of the story form technology stand point (especially unstructured and intelligent language based technology standpoint) reveals a few interesting patterns : Opinion Monitoring, Buzz Tracking, Political Risk Analysis, Business Intelligence and Decision Support Software, Intelligent Trading Software, "Understanding" and Intelligent Interpretation of Information and Data. This story could well have been "written" in a completely different way from an unstructured information management point of view, where an online and off-line media house like The Economist uses its information corpus and the power of its politico-economic analysis to ally with a government agency like DARPA and text and statistics based software capabilities of a Business Intelligence or Decision Support solutions vendor to create a simulated exchange to predict the future of political risks. Of course, this simulation will lack the online, live feel of "public" involvement but still an equally complex simulation models such as Manto Carlo Simulation and Decision Tree Analysis could be used to obtain useful insights - that too, in much more de-polarized manner than the controversy created in the wake of PAM. Other Examples of Technology to Analyze Complex Futures We recently spotted a very interesting example of using machine learning and statistical simulation in the form of a technology called Hit Song Science from Polyphonic HMI. This company analyzes patterns in a new song based on learning's from its database of 3.5 million songs and predict whether that song will be hit or not. It is important to note that the techniques used here do not take into account textual information but one could well imagine a system of automatic "hit" buzz tracking based on similar principles as those applied by pop charts - airplay monitoring, listener surveys, reviews and record sells stats. Another equally interesting example - Internet-User-Analytics, vendors have tried to devise technologies which not only track visitors but mouse-movements on the screen to magnetize online visitors. Some examples of bizarre yet interesting "exchanges - Hollywood Stock Exchange - Celebrity Stock Exchange- CelebDaq - TradeSports Ironically Tradesports has opened a new 0-100 proposition contract on Admiral Poindexter remaining on the Defense Advance Research Projects Agency(DARPA) payroll by August 31st 2003. Note that Admiral Poindexter is alleged to have been involved in PAM! - The Iowa Electronic Market . IEM operated by faculty at the University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of Business as part a research and teaching mission, offers small-scale, real-money futures markets where contract payoffs depend on economic and political events such as elections.